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HPS W vs Åland United W — Kansallinen Liiga 2020

HPS W
HPS W
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Åland United W
Åland United W
9/16/2023Kansallinen LiigaKansallinen Liiga · Championship Round - 2Paloheinän tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

HPS W33%
×Draw22%
Åland United W45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HPS W
1.64
Åland United W
1.92

Åland United W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 73 away

creates per match

HPS W
1.83
Åland United W
2.23

allows per match

HPS W
1.61
Åland United W
1.44

finishing

HPS W+0.00on par
Åland United W+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HPS W ↓

Åland United W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

HPS W or draw
55%
HPS W or Åland United W
78%
Draw or Åland United W
67%

Winning margin

HPS W wins by 2+
16%
Åland United W wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

HPS W 1+ goals
81%
HPS W 2+ goals
49%
HPS W 3+ goals
23%
Åland United W 1+ goals
85%
Åland United W 2+ goals
57%
Åland United W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

HPS W (draw refunded)
43%
Åland United W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HPS W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.61 · 64 matches

Åland United W away — creates 2.23, concedes 1.44 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HPS W attack 1.83 + Åland United W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Åland United W attack 2.23 + HPS W defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

HPS W scores more
33%
level
22%
Åland United W scores more
45%

Åland United W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Åland United W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HPS W vs Åland United W

HPS W and Åland United W drew 2-2 in Kansallinen Liiga on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Paloheinän tekonurmi in Helsinki.