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Municipal Liberia vs LD Alajuelense — League #162 2026

Municipal Liberia
Municipal Liberia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
LD Alajuelense
LD Alajuelense
J. McDonald 86' (pen)
Y. Wright 9'
9/10/2017League #162League #162 · Apertura - 8Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño (Liberia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Municipal Liberia35%
×Draw27%
LD Alajuelense39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Municipal Liberia
1.25
LD Alajuelense
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 6 away

creates per match

Municipal Liberia
1.50
LD Alajuelense
1.17

allows per match

Municipal Liberia
1.50
LD Alajuelense
1.00

finishing

Municipal Liberia+0.00on par
LD Alajuelense+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Municipal Liberia ↓

LD Alajuelense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Municipal Liberia or draw
61%
Municipal Liberia or LD Alajuelense
73%
Draw or LD Alajuelense
65%

Winning margin

Municipal Liberia wins by 2+
15%
LD Alajuelense wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Municipal Liberia 1+ goals
71%
Municipal Liberia 2+ goals
36%
Municipal Liberia 3+ goals
13%
LD Alajuelense 1+ goals
74%
LD Alajuelense 2+ goals
38%
LD Alajuelense 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Municipal Liberia (draw refunded)
47%
LD Alajuelense (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Municipal Liberia at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

LD Alajuelense away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Municipal Liberia attack 1.50 + LD Alajuelense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

LD Alajuelense attack 1.17 + Municipal Liberia defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Municipal Liberia scores more
35%
level
27%
LD Alajuelense scores more
39%

LD Alajuelense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "LD Alajuelense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
Y. Wright
50'
M. Mena← R. Núñez
53'
B. López← Y. Wright
62'
A. Lava← C. Ochoa
64'
A. Guevara← D. Arias
70'
B. Balinovic← C. Hernández
79'
H. Rojas← J. Cordero
86'
J. McDonaldPenalty

Match Recap: Municipal Liberia vs LD Alajuelense

LD Alajuelense beat Municipal Liberia 2-0 in League #162 on September 10, 2017.

Goals: Y. Wright (9'), J. McDonald (86' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Edgardo Baltodano Briceño (Liberia).