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Houston Dynamo FC II vs Ventura County — MLS Next Pro 2022

Houston Dynamo FC II
Houston Dynamo FC II
Preview
23:00
Ventura County
Ventura County
8/14/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageSaberCats Stadium
Big match
57%
Houston Dynamo FC II
model favours
57%21%22%

Houston Dynamo FC II have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Houston Dynamo FC II57%
×Draw21%
Ventura County22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dynamo FC II
2.17
Ventura County
1.29

Houston Dynamo FC II creates 68% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 37 away

creates per match

Houston Dynamo FC II
2.00
Ventura County
1.49

allows per match

Houston Dynamo FC II
1.10
Ventura County
2.35

finishing

Houston Dynamo FC II+0.00on par
Ventura County+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo FC II ↓

Ventura County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo FC II or draw
78%
Houston Dynamo FC II or Ventura County
79%
Draw or Ventura County
43%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo FC II wins by 2+
35%
Ventura County wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo FC II 1+ goals
89%
Houston Dynamo FC II 2+ goals
64%
Houston Dynamo FC II 3+ goals
36%
Ventura County 1+ goals
72%
Ventura County 2+ goals
37%
Ventura County 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo FC II (draw refunded)
72%
Ventura County (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo FC II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Ventura County away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.35 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo FC II attack 2.00 + Ventura County defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 2.17

Ventura County attack 1.49 + Houston Dynamo FC II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Houston Dynamo FC II scores more
57%
level
21%
Ventura County scores more
22%

Houston Dynamo FC II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Houston Dynamo FC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (79% and 73% over 2.5)
  • 79% of Houston Dynamo FC II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Houston Dynamo FC II score first in only 32% of matches
  • 73% of Ventura County’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 44% of Ventura County’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WWLLL
County
LWDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Houston Dynamo FC II host Ventura County

August 14, 2026: Houston Dynamo FC II take on Ventura County in MLS Next Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Houston Dynamo FC II host Ventura County at SaberCats Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.