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Houston Dynamo FC II vs Sporting KC II — MLS Next Pro 2022

Houston Dynamo FC II
Houston Dynamo FC II
Preview
21:00
Sporting KC II
Sporting KC II
9/20/2026MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Group StageSaberCats Stadium
Big match
54%
Houston Dynamo FC II
model favours
54%21%25%

Houston Dynamo FC II have scored in 16 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
67%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Houston Dynamo FC II54%
×Draw21%
Sporting KC II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dynamo FC II
2.09
Sporting KC II
1.35

Houston Dynamo FC II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Houston Dynamo FC II
2.00
Sporting KC II
1.59

allows per match

Houston Dynamo FC II
1.10
Sporting KC II
2.18

finishing

Houston Dynamo FC II+0.00on par
Sporting KC II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo FC II ↓

Sporting KC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo FC II or draw
75%
Houston Dynamo FC II or Sporting KC II
79%
Draw or Sporting KC II
46%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo FC II wins by 2+
32%
Sporting KC II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo FC II 1+ goals
88%
Houston Dynamo FC II 2+ goals
62%
Houston Dynamo FC II 3+ goals
34%
Sporting KC II 1+ goals
74%
Sporting KC II 2+ goals
39%
Sporting KC II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo FC II (draw refunded)
69%
Sporting KC II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo FC II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Sporting KC II away — creates 1.59, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo FC II attack 2.00 + Sporting KC II defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.09

Sporting KC II attack 1.59 + Houston Dynamo FC II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Houston Dynamo FC II scores more
54%
level
21%
Sporting KC II scores more
25%

Houston Dynamo FC II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Houston Dynamo FC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 79% of Houston Dynamo FC II’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Houston Dynamo FC II score first in only 32% of matches
  • Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings
  • Houston Dynamo FC II sit 2, Sporting KC II 13 in the table
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WWLLL
II
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Houston Dynamo FC II host Sporting KC II

September 20, 2026: Houston Dynamo FC II take on Sporting KC II in MLS Next Pro. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Houston Dynamo FC II host Sporting KC II at SaberCats Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.