Houston Dash W vs NJ/NY Gotham FC — NWSL Women 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 82+ matches
Houston Dash W34%
NJ/NY Gotham FC39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 82 home / 86 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Houston Dash W ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Houston Dash W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches
NJ/NY Gotham FC away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.19 · 86 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Houston Dash W attack 1.17 + NJ/NY Gotham FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.18
NJ/NY Gotham FC attack 1.27 + Houston Dash W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
NJ/NY Gotham FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "NJ/NY Gotham FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Angel City W
Washington Spirit WNJ/NY Gotham FC W
Bay FC W
Boston Legacy W
Kansas City W
San Diego Wave W
Denver Summit W
Portland Thorns W
Seattle Reign FC W
Orlando Pride W
Utah Royals W
Chicago Red Stars W
North Carolina Courage WHouston Dash W
Racing Louisville WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Houston Dash W host NJ/NY Gotham FC on Sunday, 25 August 2019 at 00:30. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2026/2027 season.
NWSL Women: Houston Dash W 1–2 NJ/NY Gotham FC
NJ/NY Gotham FC beat Houston Dash W 2-1 in NWSL Women on August 25, 2019.
The match was played at BBVA Stadium (Houston, Texas).