Hougang United 2–1 Geylang International

Hougang United

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Geylang International

8/20/2021

Premier League · Round 7Hougang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Hougang United39%

×Draw21%

Geylang International39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hougang UnitedExpected goals in this matchGeylang International

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

Hougang United

1.96

Geylang International

1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 81 away

1.98

creates per match

1.78

2.14

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Hougang United

1.98

Geylang International

1.78

allows per match

Hougang United

2.14

Geylang International

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hougang United+0.00on par

Geylang International+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hougang United ↓

Geylang International →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hougang United or draw

61%

Hougang United or Geylang International

79%

Draw or Geylang International

61%

Winning margin

Hougang United wins by 2+

21%

Geylang International wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Hougang United 1+ goals

86%

Hougang United 2+ goals

58%

Hougang United 3+ goals

31%

Geylang International 1+ goals

86%

Geylang International 2+ goals

58%

Geylang International 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Hougang United (draw refunded)

50%

Geylang International (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hougang United at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.14 · 81 matches

Geylang International away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.93 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hougang United attack 1.98 + Geylang International defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.96

Geylang International attack 1.78 + Hougang United defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hougang United scores more

39%

level

21%

Geylang International scores more

39%

Hougang United at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Hougang United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff