Hougang United 0–1 Albirex Niigata S

Hougang United

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Albirex Niigata S

12/5/2020

Premier League · Round 11Hougang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Hougang United32%

×Draw21%

Albirex Niigata S48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hougang UnitedExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata S

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

2.17

Hougang United

1.75

Albirex Niigata S

2.17

Albirex Niigata S creates 24% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 82 away

1.98

creates per match

2.20

2.14

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Hougang United

1.98

Albirex Niigata S

2.20

allows per match

Hougang United

2.14

Albirex Niigata S

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hougang United+0.00on par

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hougang United ↓

Albirex Niigata S →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hougang United or draw

52%

Hougang United or Albirex Niigata S

79%

Draw or Albirex Niigata S

68%

Winning margin

Hougang United wins by 2+

16%

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hougang United 1+ goals

83%

Hougang United 2+ goals

52%

Hougang United 3+ goals

25%

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals

89%

Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals

64%

Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Hougang United (draw refunded)

40%

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hougang United at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.14 · 81 matches

Albirex Niigata S away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hougang United attack 1.98 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.75

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.20 + Hougang United defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hougang United scores more

32%

level

21%

Albirex Niigata S scores more

48%

Albirex Niigata S at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff