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Hořovicko vs Tatran Sedlčany — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hořovicko
Hořovicko
PST
09:30
Tatran Sedlčany
Tatran Sedlčany
3/14/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 17Mestský stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Hořovicko61%
×Draw19%
Tatran Sedlčany20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hořovicko
2.40
Tatran Sedlčany
1.33

Hořovicko creates 80% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 28 away

creates per match

Hořovicko
1.40
Tatran Sedlčany
1.11

allows per match

Hořovicko
1.55
Tatran Sedlčany
3.39

finishing

Hořovicko+0.00on par
Tatran Sedlčany+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hořovicko ↓

Tatran Sedlčany →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Hořovicko or draw
80%
Hořovicko or Tatran Sedlčany
81%
Draw or Tatran Sedlčany
39%

Winning margin

Hořovicko wins by 2+
39%
Tatran Sedlčany wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hořovicko 1+ goals
91%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
69%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
42%
Tatran Sedlčany 1+ goals
74%
Tatran Sedlčany 2+ goals
38%
Tatran Sedlčany 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hořovicko (draw refunded)
75%
Tatran Sedlčany (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hořovicko at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Tatran Sedlčany away — creates 1.11, concedes 3.39 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hořovicko attack 1.40 + Tatran Sedlčany defence 3.39 → ÷2 → 2.40

Tatran Sedlčany attack 1.11 + Hořovicko defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hořovicko scores more
61%
level
19%
Tatran Sedlčany scores more
20%

Hořovicko at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hořovicko face Tatran Sedlčany (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Hořovicko hosting Tatran Sedlčany. Match starts March 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hořovicko host Tatran Sedlčany at Mestský stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.