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Hořovicko vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hořovicko
Hořovicko
PST
14:00
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
3/29/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 19Mestský stadion (Hořovice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Hořovicko47%
×Draw25%
Sokol Čížová28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hořovicko
1.55
Sokol Čížová
1.13

Hořovicko creates 37% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 7 away

creates per match

Hořovicko
1.40
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Hořovicko
1.55
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Hořovicko+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hořovicko ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hořovicko or draw
72%
Hořovicko or Sokol Čížová
75%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
53%

Winning margin

Hořovicko wins by 2+
24%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hořovicko 1+ goals
79%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
46%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
20%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
68%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
31%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hořovicko (draw refunded)
63%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hořovicko at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hořovicko attack 1.40 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Hořovicko defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hořovicko scores more
47%
level
25%
Sokol Čížová scores more
28%

Hořovicko at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hořovicko host Sokol Čížová

March 29, 2020: Hořovicko take on Sokol Čížová in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hořovicko host Sokol Čížová at Mestský stadion (Hořovice).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.