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Hořovicko vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Hořovicko
Hořovicko
PST
14:30
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
4/12/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 21Mestský stadion (Hořovice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Hořovicko47%
×Draw23%
Otava Katovice30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hořovicko
1.85
Otava Katovice
1.45

Hořovicko creates 28% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 56 away

creates per match

Hořovicko
1.40
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Hořovicko
1.55
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Hořovicko+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hořovicko ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hořovicko or draw
70%
Hořovicko or Otava Katovice
77%
Draw or Otava Katovice
53%

Winning margin

Hořovicko wins by 2+
26%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hořovicko 1+ goals
84%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
55%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
28%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
77%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
42%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hořovicko (draw refunded)
61%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hořovicko at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hořovicko attack 1.40 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.85

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Hořovicko defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hořovicko scores more
47%
level
23%
Otava Katovice scores more
30%

Hořovicko at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hořovicko vs Otava Katovice — Match Preview

Hořovicko face Otava Katovice on April 12, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hořovicko host Otava Katovice at Mestský stadion (Hořovice).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.