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Horní Heršpice W vs Viktoria Plzeň W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Horní Heršpice W
Horní Heršpice W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň W
Viktoria Plzeň W
L. Liskova 66'
5/13/20231. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Relegation Round - 5Hřiště Lokomotiva Horní Heršpice-Brno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Horní Heršpice W39%
×Draw21%
Viktoria Plzeň W40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Heršpice W
1.92
Viktoria Plzeň W
1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Horní Heršpice W
1.20
Viktoria Plzeň W
1.28

allows per match

Horní Heršpice W
2.62
Viktoria Plzeň W
2.63

finishing

Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň W+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Heršpice W ↓

Viktoria Plzeň W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Horní Heršpice W or draw
60%
Horní Heršpice W or Viktoria Plzeň W
79%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň W
61%

Winning margin

Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+
21%
Viktoria Plzeň W wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals
85%
Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals
57%
Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals
30%
Viktoria Plzeň W 1+ goals
86%
Viktoria Plzeň W 2+ goals
58%
Viktoria Plzeň W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)
49%
Viktoria Plzeň W (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Heršpice W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

Viktoria Plzeň W away — creates 1.28, concedes 2.63 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Heršpice W attack 1.20 + Viktoria Plzeň W defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.92

Viktoria Plzeň W attack 1.28 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Horní Heršpice W scores more
39%
level
21%
Viktoria Plzeň W scores more
40%

Viktoria Plzeň W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Viktoria Plzeň W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
P. Lipkova← P. Lipkova
46'
M. Polackova← M. Polackova
59'
←
66'
L. Liskova
71'
L. Knodlova← L. Knodlova
71'
A. Horackova← A. Horackova
83'
L. Herbrychova← L. Herbrychova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Horní Heršpice W 1–0 Viktoria Plzeň W

Horní Heršpice W beat Viktoria Plzeň W 1-0 in 1. Liga Women on May 13, 2023.

Goals: L. Liskova (66').

The match was played at Hřiště Lokomotiva Horní Heršpice-Brno in Brno.