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Horní Heršpice W vs Slovan Liberec W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Horní Heršpice W
Horní Heršpice W
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Slovan Liberec W
Slovan Liberec W
M. Harvilova 90+3'
V. Susolova 65'
R. Hlouchova 57'
K. Dinh Thanhova 31', 25'
8/26/20231. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 2Hřiště Lokomotiva Horní Heršpice-Brno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Horní Heršpice W30%
×Draw21%
Slovan Liberec W49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Heršpice W
1.66
Slovan Liberec W
2.15

Slovan Liberec W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Horní Heršpice W
1.20
Slovan Liberec W
1.67

allows per match

Horní Heršpice W
2.62
Slovan Liberec W
2.12

finishing

Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par
Slovan Liberec W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Heršpice W ↓

Slovan Liberec W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Horní Heršpice W or draw
51%
Horní Heršpice W or Slovan Liberec W
79%
Draw or Slovan Liberec W
70%

Winning margin

Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+
14%
Slovan Liberec W wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals
81%
Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals
49%
Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals
23%
Slovan Liberec W 1+ goals
88%
Slovan Liberec W 2+ goals
63%
Slovan Liberec W 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)
38%
Slovan Liberec W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Heršpice W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

Slovan Liberec W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.12 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Heršpice W attack 1.20 + Slovan Liberec W defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.66

Slovan Liberec W attack 1.67 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Horní Heršpice W scores more
30%
level
21%
Slovan Liberec W scores more
49%

Slovan Liberec W at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Slovan Liberec W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
K. Dinh Thanhova
31'
K. Dinh Thanhova
40'
D. Dianiskova
45+2'
L. Liskova
46'
M. Hlavacova← M. Hlavacova
56'
D. Tenkratova← D. Tenkratova
57'
R. Hlouchova
62'
M. Harvilova← M. Harvilova
62'
S. Brazdova← S. Brazdova
62'
N. Velebova← N. Velebova
65'
V. Susolova
70'
K. Prikaska
72'
L. Liskova
72'
L. Liskova
82'
V. Mikundova← V. Mikundova
82'
E. Jordankova← E. Jordankova
90'
V. Susolova
90+3'
M. Harvilova

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horní Heršpice W vs Slovan Liberec W

Slovan Liberec W beat Horní Heršpice W 5-0 in 1. Liga Women on August 26, 2023.

Goals: K. Dinh Thanhova (25', 31'), R. Hlouchova (57'), V. Susolova (65'), M. Harvilova (90+3').

The match was played at Hřiště Lokomotiva Horní Heršpice-Brno in Brno.