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Horní Heršpice W vs Baník Ostrava W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Horní Heršpice W
Horní Heršpice W
FT
4 – 0
Baník Ostrava W
Baník Ostrava W
10/15/20221. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 7Hřiště Lokomotiva Horní Heršpice-Brno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Horní Heršpice W46%
×Draw20%
Baník Ostrava W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Heršpice W
2.27
Baník Ostrava W
1.95

Horní Heršpice W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Horní Heršpice W
1.20
Baník Ostrava W
1.27

allows per match

Horní Heršpice W
2.62
Baník Ostrava W
3.33

finishing

Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par
Baník Ostrava W+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Heršpice W ↓

Baník Ostrava W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Horní Heršpice W or draw
66%
Horní Heršpice W or Baník Ostrava W
80%
Draw or Baník Ostrava W
54%

Winning margin

Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+
27%
Baník Ostrava W wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals
90%
Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals
66%
Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals
39%
Baník Ostrava W 1+ goals
86%
Baník Ostrava W 2+ goals
58%
Baník Ostrava W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)
57%
Baník Ostrava W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Heršpice W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

Baník Ostrava W away — creates 1.27, concedes 3.33 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Heršpice W attack 1.20 + Baník Ostrava W defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Baník Ostrava W attack 1.27 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Horní Heršpice W scores more
46%
level
20%
Baník Ostrava W scores more
34%

Horní Heršpice W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Horní Heršpice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horní Heršpice W vs Baník Ostrava W

Horní Heršpice W beat Baník Ostrava W 4-0 in 1. Liga Women on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Hřiště Lokomotiva Horní Heršpice-Brno in Brno.