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Honka vs Lahti — Veikkausliiga 2018

Honka
Honka
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Lahti
Lahti
4/15/2018VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 2Tapiolan Urheilupuisto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Honka53%
×Draw25%
Lahti22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
1.60
Lahti
0.93

Honka creates 72% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 101 away

creates per match

Honka
1.64
Lahti
0.93

allows per match

Honka
0.92
Lahti
1.56

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
Lahti+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

Lahti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Honka or draw
78%
Honka or Lahti
75%
Draw or Lahti
47%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
28%
Lahti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
80%
Honka 2+ goals
47%
Honka 3+ goals
22%
Lahti 1+ goals
61%
Lahti 2+ goals
24%
Lahti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
71%
Lahti (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.92 · 84 matches

Lahti away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.56 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 1.64 + Lahti defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.60

Lahti attack 0.93 + Honka defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Honka scores more
53%
level
25%
Lahti scores more
22%

Honka at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Honka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: Honka 0–0 Lahti

Honka and Lahti drew 0-0 in Veikkausliiga on April 15, 2018.

The match was played at Tapiolan Urheilupuisto in Espoo.