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Honka vs Haka — Suomen Cup 2018

Honka
Honka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Haka
Haka
2/13/2021Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Group Stage - 3Eerikkilä Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Honka21%
×Draw22%
Haka56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka
1.06
Haka
1.88

Haka creates 77% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

creates per match

Honka
1.33
Haka
2.48

allows per match

Honka
1.28
Haka
0.80

finishing

Honka+0.00on par
Haka+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka ↓

Haka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Honka or draw
44%
Honka or Haka
78%
Draw or Haka
79%

Winning margin

Honka wins by 2+
8%
Haka wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Honka 1+ goals
65%
Honka 2+ goals
29%
Honka 3+ goals
9%
Haka 1+ goals
85%
Haka 2+ goals
56%
Haka 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Honka (draw refunded)
27%
Haka (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Haka away — creates 2.48, concedes 0.80 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka attack 1.33 + Haka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.06

Haka attack 2.48 + Honka defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Honka scores more
21%
level
22%
Haka scores more
56%

Haka at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Haka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: Honka 1–0 Haka

Honka beat Haka 1-0 in Suomen Cup on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Eerikkilä Tekonurmi in Eerikkilä.