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Honka Akatemia vs GrIFK — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2018

Honka Akatemia
Honka Akatemia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
GrIFK
GrIFK
9/27/2019Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Round 21Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi (Espoo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Honka Akatemia45%
×Draw23%
GrIFK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Honka Akatemia
1.84
GrIFK
1.52

Honka Akatemia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 71 away

creates per match

Honka Akatemia
1.93
GrIFK
1.58

allows per match

Honka Akatemia
1.45
GrIFK
1.76

finishing

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par
GrIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka Akatemia ↓

GrIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Honka Akatemia or draw
68%
Honka Akatemia or GrIFK
77%
Draw or GrIFK
55%

Winning margin

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+
25%
GrIFK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals
84%
Honka Akatemia 2+ goals
55%
Honka Akatemia 3+ goals
28%
GrIFK 1+ goals
78%
GrIFK 2+ goals
45%
GrIFK 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)
59%
GrIFK (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka Akatemia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

GrIFK away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.76 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka Akatemia attack 1.93 + GrIFK defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.84

GrIFK attack 1.58 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Honka Akatemia scores more
45%
level
23%
GrIFK scores more
32%

Honka Akatemia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko B: Honka Akatemia 1–1 GrIFK

Honka Akatemia and GrIFK drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on September 27, 2019.

The match was played at Tapiola 1 Tekonurmi (Espoo).