Honka Akatemia 2–1 FC jazz: Result & Stats

Honka Akatemia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

FC jazz

7/16/2018

Kakkonen - Lohko B · Round 12Tapiolan Urheilupuisto (Espoo (Esbo))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Honka Akatemia45%

×Draw22%

FC jazz33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Honka AkatemiaExpected goals in this matchFC jazz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.60

Honka Akatemia

1.92

FC jazz

1.60

Honka Akatemia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 65 away

1.93

creates per match

1.75

1.45

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Honka Akatemia

1.93

FC jazz

1.75

allows per match

Honka Akatemia

1.45

FC jazz

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Honka Akatemia+0.00on par

FC jazz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Honka Akatemia ↓

FC jazz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

47%53%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Honka Akatemia or draw

67%

Honka Akatemia or FC jazz

78%

Draw or FC jazz

55%

Winning margin

Honka Akatemia wins by 2+

25%

FC jazz wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Honka Akatemia 1+ goals

85%

Honka Akatemia 2+ goals

57%

Honka Akatemia 3+ goals

30%

FC jazz 1+ goals

80%

FC jazz 2+ goals

47%

FC jazz 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Honka Akatemia (draw refunded)

58%

FC jazz (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Honka Akatemia at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.45 · 56 matches

FC jazz away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.91 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Honka Akatemia attack 1.93 + FC jazz defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC jazz attack 1.75 + Honka Akatemia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Honka Akatemia scores more

45%

level

22%

FC jazz scores more

33%

Honka Akatemia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Honka Akatemia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff