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Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Ho Chi Minh — V.League 1 2019

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ho Chi Minh
Ho Chi Minh
9/14/2022V.League 1V.League 1 · Round 16Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh42%
×Draw27%
Ho Chi Minh30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.32
Ho Chi Minh
1.08

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh creates 22% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 89 away

creates per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.14
Ho Chi Minh
1.06

allows per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
1.10
Ho Chi Minh
1.51

finishing

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par
Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh ↓

Ho Chi Minh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or draw
70%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or Ho Chi Minh
73%
Draw or Ho Chi Minh
58%

Winning margin

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+
19%
Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals
73%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals
38%
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals
15%
Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals
66%
Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals
29%
Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)
58%
Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 78 matches

Ho Chi Minh away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.51 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 1.14 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.06 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more
42%
level
27%
Ho Chi Minh scores more
30%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Ho Chi Minh

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh and Ho Chi Minh drew 1-1 in V.League 1 on September 14, 2022.

The match was played at Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh in Hà Tĩnh.