Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1–1 Hai Phong: Result & Stats

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Hai Phong

3/8/2024

V.League 1 · Round 13Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh43%

×Draw28%

Hai Phong29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hồng Lĩnh Hà TĩnhExpected goals in this matchHai Phong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.03

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

1.31

Hai Phong

1.03

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh creates 27% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 90 away

1.14

creates per match

0.96

1.10

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

1.14

Hai Phong

0.96

allows per match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

1.10

Hai Phong

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par

Hai Phong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh ↓

Hai Phong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or draw

71%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh or Hai Phong

72%

Draw or Hai Phong

57%

Winning margin

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+

20%

Hai Phong wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals

73%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals

38%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals

14%

Hai Phong 1+ goals

64%

Hai Phong 2+ goals

28%

Hai Phong 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)

59%

Hai Phong (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 78 matches

Hai Phong away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 1.14 + Hai Phong defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Hai Phong attack 0.96 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more

43%

level

28%

Hai Phong scores more

29%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Hai Phong

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh and Hai Phong drew 1-1 in V.League 1 on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sân Vận động tỉnh Hà Tĩnh in Hà Tĩnh.

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Hai Phong — V.League 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Hai Phong