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Homeboyz vs Tusker — Shield Cup 2022

Homeboyz
Homeboyzadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tusker
Tusker
3/30/2024Shield CupShield Cup · Round of 16Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Homeboyz46%
×Draw26%
Tusker28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Homeboyz
1.48
Tusker
1.09

Homeboyz creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 4 away

creates per match

Homeboyz
1.71
Tusker
1.75

allows per match

Homeboyz
0.43
Tusker
1.25

finishing

Homeboyz+0.00on par
Tusker+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Homeboyz ↓

Tusker →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Homeboyz or draw
72%
Homeboyz or Tusker
74%
Draw or Tusker
54%

Winning margin

Homeboyz wins by 2+
23%
Tusker wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Homeboyz 1+ goals
77%
Homeboyz 2+ goals
43%
Homeboyz 3+ goals
19%
Tusker 1+ goals
66%
Tusker 2+ goals
30%
Tusker 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Homeboyz (draw refunded)
62%
Tusker (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Homeboyz at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.43 · 7 matches

Tusker away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Homeboyz attack 1.71 + Tusker defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.48

Tusker attack 1.75 + Homeboyz defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Homeboyz scores more
46%
level
26%
Tusker scores more
28%

Homeboyz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Homeboyz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Homeboyz vs Tusker

Homeboyz beat Tusker 1-0 in Shield Cup on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Jomo Kenyatta International Stadium in Kisumu.