Home United 1–3 Geylang International

Home United

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Geylang International

9/4/2022

Premier League · Round 10Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Home United56%

×Draw20%

Geylang International24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Home UnitedExpected goals in this matchGeylang International

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

1.50

Home United

2.33

Geylang International

1.50

Home United creates 55% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

2.73

creates per match

1.78

1.22

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Home United

2.73

Geylang International

1.78

allows per match

Home United

1.22

Geylang International

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Home United+0.00on par

Geylang International+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home United ↓

Geylang International →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Home United or draw

76%

Home United or Geylang International

80%

Draw or Geylang International

44%

Winning margin

Home United wins by 2+

35%

Geylang International wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Home United 1+ goals

90%

Home United 2+ goals

67%

Home United 3+ goals

41%

Geylang International 1+ goals

78%

Geylang International 2+ goals

44%

Geylang International 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Home United (draw refunded)

70%

Geylang International (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home United at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.22 · 82 matches

Geylang International away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.93 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home United attack 2.73 + Geylang International defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.33

Geylang International attack 1.78 + Home United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Home United scores more

56%

level

20%

Geylang International scores more

24%

Home United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Home United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff