Home United 7–1 Albirex Niigata S: Result & Stats

Home United

FT

7 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Albirex Niigata S

6/23/2024

Premier League · Round 5Bishan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Home United47%

×Draw21%

Albirex Niigata S32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Home UnitedExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata S

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

1.71

Home United

2.12

Albirex Niigata S

1.71

Home United creates 24% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

2.73

creates per match

2.20

1.22

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Home United

2.73

Albirex Niigata S

2.20

allows per match

Home United

1.22

Albirex Niigata S

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Home United+0.00on par

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Home United ↓

Albirex Niigata S →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Home United or draw

68%

Home United or Albirex Niigata S

79%

Draw or Albirex Niigata S

53%

Winning margin

Home United wins by 2+

27%

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Home United 1+ goals

88%

Home United 2+ goals

62%

Home United 3+ goals

35%

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals

82%

Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals

51%

Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Home United (draw refunded)

60%

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Home United at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.22 · 82 matches

Albirex Niigata S away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Home United attack 2.73 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 2.12

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.20 + Home United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Home United scores more

47%

level

21%

Albirex Niigata S scores more

32%

Home United at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Home United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff