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Holbæk B&I vs VSK Århus — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
FT
0 – 2
VSK Århus
VSK Århus
3/20/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Holbæk Sportsby Kunstgræs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Holbæk B&I34%
×Draw26%
VSK Århus40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Holbæk B&I
1.30
VSK Århus
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 29 away

creates per match

Holbæk B&I
1.50
VSK Århus
1.14

allows per match

Holbæk B&I
1.71
VSK Århus
1.10

finishing

Holbæk B&I+0.00on par
VSK Århus+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holbæk B&I ↓

VSK Århus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Holbæk B&I or draw
60%
Holbæk B&I or VSK Århus
74%
Draw or VSK Århus
66%

Winning margin

Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
15%
VSK Århus wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
73%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
37%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
14%
VSK Århus 1+ goals
76%
VSK Århus 2+ goals
41%
VSK Århus 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
46%
VSK Århus (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holbæk B&I at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.71 · 24 matches

VSK Århus away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.10 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holbæk B&I attack 1.50 + VSK Århus defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.30

VSK Århus attack 1.14 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Holbæk B&I scores more
34%
level
26%
VSK Århus scores more
40%

VSK Århus at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "VSK Århus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Holbæk B&I 0–2 VSK Århus

VSK Århus beat Holbæk B&I 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Holbæk Sportsby Kunstgræs in Holbæk.