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Hodonín vs Vyškov — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hodonín
Hodonín
FT
0 – 2
Vyškov
Vyškov
6/26/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hodonín43%
×Draw23%
Vyškov34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hodonín
1.75
Vyškov
1.52

Hodonín creates 15% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

creates per match

Hodonín
1.50
Vyškov
1.53

allows per match

Hodonín
1.50
Vyškov
2.00

finishing

Hodonín+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hodonín ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Hodonín or draw
66%
Hodonín or Vyškov
77%
Draw or Vyškov
57%

Winning margin

Hodonín wins by 2+
23%
Vyškov wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hodonín 1+ goals
83%
Hodonín 2+ goals
52%
Hodonín 3+ goals
25%
Vyškov 1+ goals
78%
Vyškov 2+ goals
45%
Vyškov 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Hodonín (draw refunded)
56%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hodonín at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hodonín attack 1.50 + Vyškov defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Vyškov attack 1.53 + Hodonín defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hodonín scores more
43%
level
23%
Vyškov scores more
34%

Hodonín at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hodonín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hodonín vs Vyškov

Vyškov beat Hodonín 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on June 26, 2020.