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hodd vs Senja — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

hodd
hodd
PST
17:00
Senja
Senja
7/10/20212. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 13Nye Høddvoll Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

hodd78%
×Draw14%
Senja8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

hodd
2.60
Senja
0.71

hodd creates 266% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 21 away

creates per match

hodd
2.10
Senja
0.57

allows per match

hodd
0.85
Senja
3.10

finishing

hodd+0.00on par
Senja+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

Senja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

hodd or draw
92%
hodd or Senja
86%
Draw or Senja
22%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+
56%
Senja wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals
92%
hodd 2+ goals
73%
hodd 3+ goals
47%
Senja 1+ goals
51%
Senja 2+ goals
16%
Senja 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)
91%
Senja (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.85 · 48 matches

Senja away — creates 0.57, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 2.10 + Senja defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.60

Senja attack 0.57 + hodd defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

hodd scores more
78%
level
14%
Senja scores more
8%

hodd at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

hodd face Senja (2. Division - Group 1)

2. Division - Group 1 returns with hodd hosting Senja. Match starts July 10, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

hodd host Senja at Nye Høddvoll Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.