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hodd vs ODD Ballklubb — 1. Division 2026

hodd
hodd
Preview
14:00
ODD Ballklubb
ODD Ballklubb
10/3/20261. Division1. Division · Round 24
41%
hodd
model favours
41%25%34%

Both teams score in 92% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

hodd41%
×Draw25%
ODD Ballklubb34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

hodd
1.50
ODD Ballklubb
1.33

hodd creates 13% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 21 away

creates per match

hodd
1.28
ODD Ballklubb
1.33

allows per match

hodd
1.33
ODD Ballklubb
1.71

finishing

hodd+0.00on par
ODD Ballklubb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 54Under: 4654%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

hodd ↓

ODD Ballklubb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

hodd or draw
66%
hodd or ODD Ballklubb
75%
Draw or ODD Ballklubb
59%

Winning margin

hodd wins by 2+
20%
ODD Ballklubb wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

hodd 1+ goals
78%
hodd 2+ goals
44%
hodd 3+ goals
19%
ODD Ballklubb 1+ goals
74%
ODD Ballklubb 2+ goals
38%
ODD Ballklubb 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

hodd (draw refunded)
55%
ODD Ballklubb (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

hodd at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.33 · 39 matches

ODD Ballklubb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.71 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

hodd attack 1.28 + ODD Ballklubb defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.50

ODD Ballklubb attack 1.33 + hodd defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

hodd scores more
41%
level
25%
ODD Ballklubb scores more
34%

hodd at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "hodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 77% of ODD Ballklubb’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • hodd score first in only 31% of matches
  • ODD Ballklubb score first in only 31% of matches
  • ODD Ballklubb raise their game against the top half — 40% wins vs the upper half, only 22% vs the lower

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
hodd
WWDLL
Ballklubb
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

hodd face ODD Ballklubb (1. Division)

1. Division returns with hodd hosting ODD Ballklubb. Match starts October 3, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.