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Hobart City vs South East Utd. U21 — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

Hobart City
Hobart City
PST
04:30
South East Utd. U21
South East Utd. U21
5/9/2026Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hobart City33%
×Draw18%
South East Utd. U2149%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hobart City
2.60
South East Utd. U21
3.15

South East Utd. U21 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 21 away

creates per match

Hobart City
2.73
South East Utd. U21
4.29

allows per match

Hobart City
2.00
South East Utd. U21
2.48

finishing

Hobart City+0.00on par
South East Utd. U21+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

88%Yes
  • Yes88
  • No12

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobart City ↓

South East Utd. U21 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–24%
1–35%
1–44%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–33%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 74% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
81%19%4.5
66%34%

Double chance

Hobart City or draw
51%
Hobart City or South East Utd. U21
82%
Draw or South East Utd. U21
67%

Winning margin

Hobart City wins by 2+
19%
South East Utd. U21 wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Hobart City 1+ goals
92%
Hobart City 2+ goals
73%
Hobart City 3+ goals
47%
South East Utd. U21 1+ goals
96%
South East Utd. U21 2+ goals
81%
South East Utd. U21 3+ goals
59%

Draw no bet

Hobart City (draw refunded)
40%
South East Utd. U21 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
86%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobart City at home — creates 2.73, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

South East Utd. U21 away — creates 4.29, concedes 2.48 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobart City attack 2.73 + South East Utd. U21 defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.60

South East Utd. U21 attack 4.29 + Hobart City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 3.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hobart City scores more
33%
level
18%
South East Utd. U21 scores more
49%

South East Utd. U21 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "South East Utd. U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hobart City face South East Utd. U21 (Tasmania Southern Championship)

Tasmania Southern Championship returns with Hobart City hosting South East Utd. U21. Match starts May 9, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.