Ho Chi Minh 1–1 Quang Nam: Result & Stats

Ho Chi Minh

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Quang Nam

5/11/2019

V.League 1 · Round 9Sân vận động Thống Nhất (Thong Nhat Stadium) (Thành phố Hồ Chí Minh (Ho Chi Minh City))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Ho Chi Minh44%

×Draw25%

Quang Nam31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi MinhExpected goals in this matchQuang Nam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.25

Ho Chi Minh

1.55

Quang Nam

1.25

Ho Chi Minh creates 24% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 49 away

1.32

creates per match

1.35

1.16

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.32

Quang Nam

1.35

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.16

Quang Nam

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Quang Nam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw

69%

Ho Chi Minh or Quang Nam

75%

Draw or Quang Nam

56%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

22%

Quang Nam wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

79%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

46%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

20%

Quang Nam 1+ goals

71%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

36%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

59%

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 91 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.78 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.32 + Quang Nam defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.55

Quang Nam attack 1.35 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more

44%

level

25%

Quang Nam scores more

31%

Ho Chi Minh at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff