Ho Chi Minh vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Ho Chi Minh

CANC

11:00

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

1/17/2022

Cup · Round of 16Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ho Chi Minh50%

×Draw26%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi MinhExpected goals in this matchHồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.95

Ho Chi Minh

1.52

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

0.95

Ho Chi Minh creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

1.25

creates per match

1.40

0.50

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.25

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

1.40

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh

0.50

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw

76%

Ho Chi Minh or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

74%

Draw or Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh

50%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

26%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

78%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

45%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

20%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 1+ goals

61%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 2+ goals

25%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

68%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.25 + Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh attack 1.40 + Ho Chi Minh defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more

50%

level

26%

Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh scores more

24%

Ho Chi Minh at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff