Ho Chi Minh 0–0 Da Nang: Result & Stats | Cup

Ho Chi Minh

FT

0 – 0

Da Nang

5/30/2020

Cup · 8th FinalsSân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ho Chi Minh42%

×Draw32%

Da Nang26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi MinhExpected goals in this matchDa Nang

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

0.75

Ho Chi Minh

1.04

Da Nang

0.75

Ho Chi Minh creates 39% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

1.25

creates per match

1.00

0.50

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.25

Da Nang

1.00

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh

0.50

Da Nang

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Da Nang+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Da Nang →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw

74%

Ho Chi Minh or Da Nang

68%

Draw or Da Nang

58%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

17%

Da Nang wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

65%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

28%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

9%

Da Nang 1+ goals

53%

Da Nang 2+ goals

17%

Da Nang 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

62%

Da Nang (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Da Nang away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.25 + Da Nang defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.04

Da Nang attack 1.00 + Ho Chi Minh defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more

42%

level

32%

Da Nang scores more

26%

Ho Chi Minh at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff