Ho Chi Minh 3–5 Công An Nhân Dân: Result & Stats

Ho Chi Minh

FT

3 – 5

HT: 2 – 4

Công An Nhân Dân

5/21/2023

V.League 1 · Round 8Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Ho Chi Minh33%

×Draw26%

Công An Nhân Dân41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi MinhExpected goals in this matchCông An Nhân Dân

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.42

Ho Chi Minh

1.25

Công An Nhân Dân

1.42

Công An Nhân Dân creates 14% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 48 away

1.32

creates per match

1.67

1.16

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.32

Công An Nhân Dân

1.67

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.16

Công An Nhân Dân

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Công An Nhân Dân+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Công An Nhân Dân →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw

59%

Ho Chi Minh or Công An Nhân Dân

74%

Draw or Công An Nhân Dân

67%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

14%

Công An Nhân Dân wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

71%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

36%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

13%

Công An Nhân Dân 1+ goals

76%

Công An Nhân Dân 2+ goals

41%

Công An Nhân Dân 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

45%

Công An Nhân Dân (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 91 matches

Công An Nhân Dân away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.32 + Công An Nhân Dân defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Công An Nhân Dân attack 1.67 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more

33%

level

26%

Công An Nhân Dân scores more

41%

Công An Nhân Dân at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Công An Nhân Dân will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff