Ho Chi Minh 1–1 Binh Duong: Result & Stats

Ho Chi Minh

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Binh Duong

3/6/2022

V.League 1 · Round 3Sân vận động Thống Nhất

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Ho Chi Minh45%

×Draw27%

Binh Duong29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ho Chi MinhExpected goals in this matchBinh Duong

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.08

Ho Chi Minh

1.42

Binh Duong

1.08

Ho Chi Minh creates 31% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

1.32

creates per match

1.01

1.16

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.32

Binh Duong

1.01

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh

1.16

Binh Duong

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ho Chi Minh+0.00on par

Binh Duong+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh ↓

Binh Duong →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh or draw

71%

Ho Chi Minh or Binh Duong

73%

Draw or Binh Duong

55%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh wins by 2+

22%

Binh Duong wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh 1+ goals

76%

Ho Chi Minh 2+ goals

41%

Ho Chi Minh 3+ goals

17%

Binh Duong 1+ goals

66%

Binh Duong 2+ goals

29%

Binh Duong 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh (draw refunded)

61%

Binh Duong (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.16 · 91 matches

Binh Duong away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.51 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh attack 1.32 + Binh Duong defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.42

Binh Duong attack 1.01 + Ho Chi Minh defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Ho Chi Minh scores more

45%

level

27%

Binh Duong scores more

29%

Ho Chi Minh at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ho Chi Minh vs Binh Duong

Ho Chi Minh and Binh Duong drew 1-1 in V.League 1 on March 6, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Thống Nhất in Ho Chi Minh City.

Ho Chi Minh vs Binh Duong — V.League 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ho Chi Minh vs Binh Duong