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Ho Chi Minh City vs Pho Hien — Cup 2019

Ho Chi Minh City
Ho Chi Minh Cityadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pho Hien
Pho Hien
Unknown 120+4' (pen), 120+3' (pen), 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
Unknown 120+2' (pen), 120+1' (pen)
4/11/2022CupCup · Round of 16Sân vận động Bà Rịa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ho Chi Minh City50%
×Draw23%
Pho Hien27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ho Chi Minh City
1.85
Pho Hien
1.30

Ho Chi Minh City creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh City
1.50
Pho Hien
1.60

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh City
1.00
Pho Hien
2.20

finishing

Ho Chi Minh City+0.00on par
Pho Hien+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh City ↓

Pho Hien →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh City or draw
73%
Ho Chi Minh City or Pho Hien
77%
Draw or Pho Hien
50%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh City wins by 2+
28%
Pho Hien wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh City 1+ goals
84%
Ho Chi Minh City 2+ goals
55%
Ho Chi Minh City 3+ goals
28%
Pho Hien 1+ goals
73%
Pho Hien 2+ goals
37%
Pho Hien 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh City (draw refunded)
65%
Pho Hien (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh City at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Pho Hien away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh City attack 1.50 + Pho Hien defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.85

Pho Hien attack 1.60 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ho Chi Minh City scores more
50%
level
23%
Pho Hien scores more
27%

Ho Chi Minh City at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
Penalty
120+1'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+2'
Penalty
120+3'
Missed penalty
120+3'
Penalty
120+4'
Missed penalty
120+4'
Penalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ho Chi Minh City vs Pho Hien

Ho Chi Minh City and Pho Hien drew 0-0 in Cup on April 11, 2022.

Goals: ? (120+1' pen, 120+1' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+2' pen, 120+3' pen, 120+4' pen).

The match was played at Sân vận động Bà Rịa in Bà Rịa.