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Ho Chi Minh City vs Long An — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ho Chi Minh City
Ho Chi Minh City
FT
3 – 1
Long An
Long An
1/8/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Ho Chi Minh City64%
×Draw19%
Long An17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ho Chi Minh City
2.29
Long An
1.08

Ho Chi Minh City creates 112% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Ho Chi Minh City
2.25
Long An
0.67

allows per match

Ho Chi Minh City
1.50
Long An
2.33

finishing

Ho Chi Minh City+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ho Chi Minh City ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Ho Chi Minh City or draw
83%
Ho Chi Minh City or Long An
81%
Draw or Long An
36%

Winning margin

Ho Chi Minh City wins by 2+
41%
Long An wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ho Chi Minh City 1+ goals
90%
Ho Chi Minh City 2+ goals
66%
Ho Chi Minh City 3+ goals
40%
Long An 1+ goals
66%
Long An 2+ goals
29%
Long An 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ho Chi Minh City (draw refunded)
79%
Long An (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ho Chi Minh City at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Long An away — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ho Chi Minh City attack 2.25 + Long An defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.29

Long An attack 0.67 + Ho Chi Minh City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Ho Chi Minh City scores more
64%
level
19%
Long An scores more
17%

Ho Chi Minh City at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Ho Chi Minh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Ho Chi Minh City 3–1 Long An

Ho Chi Minh City beat Long An 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 8, 2020.