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HNK Rijeka vs Sturm Graz — Friendlies Clubs 2026

HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
Canc
12:30
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz
1/12/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

HNK Rijeka61%
×Draw24%
Sturm Graz15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Rijeka
1.67
Sturm Graz
0.70

HNK Rijeka creates 139% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 5 away

creates per match

HNK Rijeka
2.13
Sturm Graz
0.60

allows per match

HNK Rijeka
0.80
Sturm Graz
1.20

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par
Sturm Graz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Sturm Graz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw
85%
HNK Rijeka or Sturm Graz
76%
Draw or Sturm Graz
39%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
34%
Sturm Graz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
81%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
50%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
23%
Sturm Graz 1+ goals
50%
Sturm Graz 2+ goals
16%
Sturm Graz 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
80%
Sturm Graz (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Sturm Graz away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 2.13 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Sturm Graz attack 0.60 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more
61%
level
24%
Sturm Graz scores more
15%

HNK Rijeka at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: HNK Rijeka host Sturm Graz

January 12, 2024: HNK Rijeka take on Sturm Graz in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

HNK Rijeka host Sturm Graz at TBC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.