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HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961 — HNL 2018

HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Istra 1961
Istra 1961
2/4/2024HNLHNL · Round 21Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Rijeka58%
×Draw23%
Istra 196118%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Rijeka
1.75
Istra 1961
0.87

HNK Rijeka creates 101% more chances

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

HNK Rijeka
1.81
Istra 1961
0.81

allows per match

HNK Rijeka
0.93
Istra 1961
1.69

finishing

HNK Rijeka+0.00on par
Istra 1961+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Istra 1961 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw
82%
HNK Rijeka or Istra 1961
77%
Draw or Istra 1961
42%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
33%
Istra 1961 wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
83%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
52%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
25%
Istra 1961 1+ goals
58%
Istra 1961 2+ goals
22%
Istra 1961 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
76%
Istra 1961 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.93 · 144 matches

Istra 1961 away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.69 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.81 + Istra 1961 defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.75

Istra 1961 attack 0.81 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more
58%
level
23%
Istra 1961 scores more
18%

HNK Rijeka at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Rijeka vs Istra 1961

HNK Rijeka beat Istra 1961 3-0 in HNL on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion HNK Rijeka in Rijeka.