HNK Rijeka 1–0 HNK Gorica: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Rijeka

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Gorica

G. Rukavina 85'

11/30/2024

HNL · Round 15Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

HNK Rijeka56%

×Draw24%

HNK Gorica20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK RijekaExpected goals in this matchHNK Gorica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.94

HNK Rijeka

1.74

HNK Gorica

0.94

HNK Rijeka creates 85% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

1.85

creates per match

1.03

0.85

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

HNK Rijeka

1.85

HNK Gorica

1.03

allows per match

HNK Rijeka

0.85

HNK Gorica

1.63

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

HNK Rijeka-0.03on par

HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

HNK Gorica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw

80%

HNK Rijeka or HNK Gorica

76%

Draw or HNK Gorica

44%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

31%

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

82%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

52%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

25%

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

61%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

24%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

73%

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.85 · 17 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.85 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.74

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more

56%

level

24%

HNK Gorica scores more

20%

HNK Rijeka at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Pršir

HNK Gorica · M

7.6

Match Events

11'

Lindon Selahi

15'

Mladen Devetak

43'

Martin Slogar

46'

G. Rukavina← M. Pašalić

46'

D. Pavlović← L. Kapulica

65'

Mesaque Dju← M. Šlogar

65'

L. Vrzić← V. Majstorović

71'

A. Gojak← N. Djouahra

74'

D. Dogan← T. Fruk

77'

M. Gashi← D. Mikanović

83'

D. Štiglec← M. Kolar

85'

G. Rukavina↳ N. Janković

88'

S. Radeljić← N. Janković

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKHNK

Overview

29%Possession71%

8Total Shots15

8Corners2

14Fouls10

Shots

8Total Shots15

2On Target1

1Off Target6

5Blocked8

4Inside Box7

4Outside Box8

Passing

29%Possession71%

216Total Passes561

134Accurate Passes481

62%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1