HNK Rijeka 2–2 Dinamo Zagreb: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Rijeka

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Dinamo Zagreb

11/12/2023

HNL · Round 15Stadion HNK Rijeka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

HNK Rijeka32%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Zagreb41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK RijekaExpected goals in this matchDinamo Zagreb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.39

HNK Rijeka

1.20

Dinamo Zagreb

1.39

Dinamo Zagreb creates 16% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.80

creates per match

2.14

0.63

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

HNK Rijeka

1.80

Dinamo Zagreb

2.14

allows per match

HNK Rijeka

0.63

Dinamo Zagreb

0.60

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

HNK Rijeka-0.13scores less

Dinamo Zagreb+0.36scores more

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Rijeka ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

HNK Rijeka or draw

59%

HNK Rijeka or Dinamo Zagreb

74%

Draw or Dinamo Zagreb

68%

Winning margin

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

13%

Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

70%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

34%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

12%

Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals

75%

Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals

40%

Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

44%

Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Rijeka at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.63 · 6 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 2.14, concedes 0.60 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Rijeka attack 1.80 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.20

Dinamo Zagreb attack 2.14 + HNK Rijeka defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

HNK Rijeka scores more

32%

level

26%

Dinamo Zagreb scores more

41%

Dinamo Zagreb at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dinamo Zagreb will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff