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HNK Hajduk Split vs HNK Gorica — HNL 2018

HNK Hajduk Split
HNK Hajduk Split
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
N. Sigur 73'
M. Livaja 71' (pen)
B. Durdov 55', 11'
M. Kolar 5'
9/21/2024HNLHNL · Round 7Stadion Poljud

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split55%
×Draw24%
HNK Gorica21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Hajduk Split
1.70
HNK Gorica
0.96

HNK Hajduk Split creates 77% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split
1.77
HNK Gorica
1.03

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split
0.89
HNK Gorica
1.63

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split-0.24scores less
HNK Gorica-0.39scores less

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split ↓

HNK Gorica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split or draw
79%
HNK Hajduk Split or HNK Gorica
76%
Draw or HNK Gorica
45%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split wins by 2+
30%
HNK Gorica wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split 1+ goals
82%
HNK Hajduk Split 2+ goals
51%
HNK Hajduk Split 3+ goals
24%
HNK Gorica 1+ goals
62%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
25%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split (draw refunded)
72%
HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

HNK Gorica away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.63 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split attack 1.77 + HNK Gorica defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.70

HNK Gorica attack 1.03 + HNK Hajduk Split defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

HNK Hajduk Split scores more
55%
level
24%
HNK Gorica scores more
21%

HNK Hajduk Split at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. LivajaHNK Hajduk SplitHNK Hajduk Split · F
9.2

Match Events

5'
M. Kolar
11'
K. Žiger← B. Radošević
11'
B. Durdov↳ M. Livaja
43'
Ismaël Diallo
46'
Š. Hrgović← I. Diallo
55'
B. Durdov↳ M. Livaja
62'
Y. Benrahou← A. Kalik
62'
L. Dajaku← S. Biuk
65'
N. Sigur← B. Durdov
69'
Yassine BenrahouPenalty confirmed
71'
M. LivajaPenalty
72'
L. Kapulica← D. Mikanović
72'
Mesaque Dju← M. Kolar
73'
N. Sigur↳ I. Rakitić
83'
L. Jurak← I. Rakitić
85'
A. Sušak← D. Štiglec
86'
D. Pavlović← J. Pršir

Possession

57%HNK

Shots

15HNK

Pass accuracy

52%HNK

Statistics

HNKHNK
Overview
57%Possession43%
15Total Shots4
5Corners3
16Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots4
9On Target2
5Off Target2
1Blocked0
12Inside Box3
3Outside Box1
Passing
57%Possession43%
456Total Passes345
387Accurate Passes276
85%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
16Fouls10
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides0

HNL: HNK Hajduk Split 4–1 HNK Gorica

HNK Hajduk Split beat HNK Gorica 4-1 in HNL on September 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Kolar (5'), B. Durdov (11', 55'), M. Livaja (71' pen), N. Sigur (73').

HNK Hajduk Split controlled possession (57%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stadion Poljud in Split.