HNK Hajduk Split II 1–0 Hrvatski Dragovoljac

HNK Hajduk Split II

FT

1 – 0

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

10/21/2018

First NL · Round 9Stadion Poljud (Split)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

HNK Hajduk Split II50%

×Draw24%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK Hajduk Split IIExpected goals in this matchHrvatski Dragovoljac

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.11

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.65

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.11

HNK Hajduk Split II creates 49% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 57 away

1.78

creates per match

1.00

1.22

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.78

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.00

allows per match

HNK Hajduk Split II

1.22

Hrvatski Dragovoljac

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

HNK Hajduk Split II+0.00on par

Hrvatski Dragovoljac+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Hajduk Split II ↓

Hrvatski Dragovoljac →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

HNK Hajduk Split II or draw

74%

HNK Hajduk Split II or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

76%

Draw or Hrvatski Dragovoljac

50%

Winning margin

HNK Hajduk Split II wins by 2+

26%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

HNK Hajduk Split II 1+ goals

81%

HNK Hajduk Split II 2+ goals

49%

HNK Hajduk Split II 3+ goals

23%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 1+ goals

67%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 2+ goals

30%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

HNK Hajduk Split II (draw refunded)

66%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Hajduk Split II at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

Hrvatski Dragovoljac away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Hajduk Split II attack 1.78 + Hrvatski Dragovoljac defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.65

Hrvatski Dragovoljac attack 1.00 + HNK Hajduk Split II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

HNK Hajduk Split II scores more

50%

level

24%

Hrvatski Dragovoljac scores more

26%

HNK Hajduk Split II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "HNK Hajduk Split II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff