HNK Gorica vs Sturm Graz — Friendlies Clubs 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
HNK Gorica48%
Sturm Graz23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
HNK Gorica creates 63% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under65
- Over35
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
HNK Gorica ↓
Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches
Sturm Graz away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
HNK Gorica attack 1.40 + Sturm Graz defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30
Sturm Graz attack 0.60 + HNK Gorica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
HNK Gorica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
No previous meetings found
HNK Gorica host Sturm Graz on Friday, 12 January 2024 at 00:00. The match is part of the Friendlies Clubs 2026/2027 season.
HNK Gorica vs Sturm Graz — Match Preview
HNK Gorica face Sturm Graz on January 12, 2024 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
HNK Gorica host Sturm Graz at Sportski Centar Terme Čatež.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.