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HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek — HNL 2018

HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
Preview
15:00
NK Osijek
NK Osijek
8/1/2026HNLHNL · Round 1Gradski stadion Velika Gorica
Big match
37%
HNK Gorica
model favours
37%27%36%

NK Osijek score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

HNK Gorica37%
×Draw27%
NK Osijek36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Gorica
1.27
NK Osijek
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

creates per match

HNK Gorica
1.17
NK Osijek
1.25

allows per match

HNK Gorica
1.27
NK Osijek
1.36

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more
NK Osijek-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Osijek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw
64%
HNK Gorica or NK Osijek
73%
Draw or NK Osijek
63%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+
16%
NK Osijek wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals
72%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
36%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
14%
NK Osijek 1+ goals
72%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
36%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
50%
NK Osijek (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + NK Osijek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

NK Osijek attack 1.25 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

HNK Gorica scores more
37%
level
27%
NK Osijek scores more
36%

HNK Gorica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • HNK Gorica score first in only 21% of matches
  • NK Osijek have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in only 31% of NK Osijek’s matches
  • 35% of HNK Gorica’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 20% of HNK Gorica’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
HNK Gorica
Balanced
NK Osijek
Balanced
45%Possession51%
77%Pass accuracy79%
9.9ShotsBiggest gap13.3
1.10xG1.29
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
HNK GoricaNK Osijek

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

3
HNK Gorica
3
Draws
4
NK Osijek
Avg goals: 1.9BTTS: 20%
2–00–01–10–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Gorica
LLWLW
Osijek
WWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek — Match Preview

HNK Gorica face NK Osijek on August 1, 2026 in this HNL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

HNK Gorica host NK Osijek at Gradski stadion Velika Gorica.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.