HNK Gorica 1–0 NK Osijek: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Gorica

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

NK Osijek

D. Mikanović 66'

2/8/2025

HNL · Round 21ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

HNK Gorica37%

×Draw27%

NK Osijek36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.23

HNK Gorica

1.27

NK Osijek

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

1.17

creates per match

1.19

1.27

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

NK Osijek

1.19

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

NK Osijek

1.38

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

NK Osijek+0.03on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Osijek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

64%

HNK Gorica or NK Osijek

73%

Draw or NK Osijek

63%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

16%

NK Osijek wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

72%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

36%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

14%

NK Osijek 1+ goals

71%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

35%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

51%

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.38 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + NK Osijek defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

NK Osijek attack 1.19 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

37%

level

27%

NK Osijek scores more

36%

HNK Gorica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

D. Mikanović

HNK Gorica · D

7.9

Match Events

31'

31'

38'

46'

46'

V. Jugović← Tiago Dantas

56'

Anton Matković

65'

Marko Soldo

65'

Renan Guedes← N. Omerović

66'

D. Mikanović

69'

M. Kolar← A. Pajaziti

73'

P. Pušić← D. Bukvić

73'

Pedro Lima← M. Soldo

82'

J. Gurlica← M. Ndockyt

84'

Vedran Jugović

85'

F. Živković← H. Babec

90+4'

Dino Mikanović

90+1'

D. Štiglec← T. Halilović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKNK

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots9

2Corners2

12Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots9

3On Target3

4Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box4

2Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

363Total Passes390

257Accurate Passes293

71%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0