HNK Gorica 2–2 NK Osijek: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Gorica

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

NK Osijek

D. Pavlović 82'

L. Kapulica 38'

V. Jugović 61', 53'

8/18/2024

HNL · Round 3ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

HNK Gorica37%

×Draw27%

NK Osijek36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchNK Osijek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.26

HNK Gorica

1.27

NK Osijek

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

1.25

1.27

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

NK Osijek

1.25

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

NK Osijek

1.36

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

NK Osijek-0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Osijek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

64%

HNK Gorica or NK Osijek

73%

Draw or NK Osijek

63%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

16%

NK Osijek wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

72%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

36%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

14%

NK Osijek 1+ goals

72%

NK Osijek 2+ goals

36%

NK Osijek 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

50%

NK Osijek (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.36 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + NK Osijek defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

NK Osijek attack 1.25 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

37%

level

27%

NK Osijek scores more

36%

HNK Gorica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

V. Jugović

NK Osijek · M

8.9

Match Events

38'

L. Kapulica

46'

N. Omerović← S. Mkrtchyan

46'

V. Jugović← Pedro Lima

53'

V. Jugović↳ A. Matković

59'

Anton Matković

61'

V. Jugović↳ D. Bukvić

62'

Vito Čaić

68'

V. Skrbin← V. Čaić

68'

M. Šlogar← M. Kolar

68'

D. Pavlović← L. Kapulica

68'

M. Soldo← K. Ademi

76'

V. Majstorović← M. Ndockyt

82'

D. Pavlović↳ K. Krizmanić

86'

F. Živković← A. Matković

90'

L. Vrzić← D. Mikanović

90+2'

I. Barić← P. Pušić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKNK

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots17

4Corners5

9Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots17

8On Target6

4Off Target8

2Blocked3

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box9

Passing

44%Possession56%

357Total Passes467

270Accurate Passes399

76%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls13

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1