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HNK Gorica vs NK Osijek — HNL 2018

HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
NK Osijek
NK Osijek
11/4/2023HNLHNL · Round 14ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Gorica37%
×Draw26%
NK Osijek37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Gorica
1.30
NK Osijek
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

HNK Gorica
1.31
NK Osijek
1.29

allows per match

HNK Gorica
1.28
NK Osijek
1.29

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.00on par
NK Osijek+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

NK Osijek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw
63%
HNK Gorica or NK Osijek
74%
Draw or NK Osijek
63%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+
16%
NK Osijek wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals
73%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
37%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
14%
NK Osijek 1+ goals
72%
NK Osijek 2+ goals
37%
NK Osijek 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
50%
NK Osijek (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

NK Osijek away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.29 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.31 + NK Osijek defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.30

NK Osijek attack 1.29 + HNK Gorica defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

HNK Gorica scores more
37%
level
26%
NK Osijek scores more
37%

HNK Gorica at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "HNK Gorica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

HNL: HNK Gorica 3–0 NK Osijek

HNK Gorica beat NK Osijek 3-0 in HNL on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at ŠRC Velika Gorica in Velika Gorica.