HNK Gorica 0–0 HNK Rijeka: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Gorica

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Rijeka

3/1/2025

HNL · Round 24ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

HNK Gorica32%

×Draw28%

HNK Rijeka40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchHNK Rijeka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.25

HNK Gorica

1.10

HNK Rijeka

1.25

HNK Rijeka creates 14% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

1.17

creates per match

1.22

1.27

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

HNK Rijeka

1.22

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

HNK Rijeka

1.03

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.38scores less than expected

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

HNK Rijeka-0.38scores less

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

HNK Rijeka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

60%

HNK Gorica or HNK Rijeka

72%

Draw or HNK Rijeka

68%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

13%

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

67%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

30%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

10%

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

71%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

36%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

45%

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.03 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.10

HNK Rijeka attack 1.22 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

32%

level

28%

HNK Rijeka scores more

40%

HNK Rijeka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

S. Radeljić

HNK Rijeka · D

7.7

Match Events

45+2'

Naïs DjouahraPenalty cancelled

54'

66'

68'

73'

76'

G. Rukavina← N. Djouahra

76'

L. Menalo← L. Selahi

77'

J. Pršir← A. Elezi

77'

M. Šlogar← A. Pajaziti

84'

D. Dogan← T. Fruk

89'

V. Majstorović← D. Mikanović

89'

A. Krešić← G. Sikošek

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKHNK

Overview

51%Possession49%

8Total Shots11

2Corners3

14Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots11

1On Target0

4Off Target7

3Blocked4

5Inside Box4

3Outside Box7

Passing

51%Possession49%

372Total Passes359

274Accurate Passes274

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls18

0Yellow Cards3