HNK Gorica 0–1 HNK Rijeka: Result & Stats | HNL

HNK Gorica

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

HNK Rijeka

N. Janković 58'

9/14/2024

HNL · Round 6ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

HNK Gorica33%

×Draw28%

HNK Rijeka40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HNK GoricaExpected goals in this matchHNK Rijeka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.27

HNK Gorica

1.13

HNK Rijeka

1.27

HNK Rijeka creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 18 away

1.17

creates per match

1.27

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

HNK Gorica

1.17

HNK Rijeka

1.27

allows per match

HNK Gorica

1.27

HNK Rijeka

1.08

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

-0.44scores less than expected

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.14scores more

HNK Rijeka-0.44scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

HNK Rijeka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw

60%

HNK Gorica or HNK Rijeka

72%

Draw or HNK Rijeka

67%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+

13%

HNK Rijeka wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals

68%

HNK Gorica 2+ goals

31%

HNK Gorica 3+ goals

11%

HNK Rijeka 1+ goals

72%

HNK Rijeka 2+ goals

36%

HNK Rijeka 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)

45%

HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.08 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.17 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.13

HNK Rijeka attack 1.27 + HNK Gorica defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

HNK Gorica scores more

33%

level

28%

HNK Rijeka scores more

40%

HNK Rijeka at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

N. Janković

HNK Rijeka · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

Merveil Ndockyt

20'

Amer Gojak

58'

N. Janković↳ K. Andrić

65'

Mesaque Dju← L. Kapulica

65'

L. Selahi← A. Gojak

72'

G. Rukavina← T. Fruk

72'

B. Bogojević← Marco Pašalić

73'

Marko Kolar

82'

D. Pavlović← A. Pajaziti

82'

T. Majić← D. Štiglec

82'

M. Gashi← M. Kolar

84'

S. Radeljić← N. Janković

85'

S. Perica← K. Andrić

86'

Jurica Pršir

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HNKHNK

Overview

57%Possession43%

6Total Shots12

3Corners5

8Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots12

1On Target6

4Off Target3

1Blocked3

5Inside Box6

1Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

468Total Passes349

386Accurate Passes247

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4