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HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka — HNL 2018

HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
HNK Rijeka
HNK Rijeka
2/11/2024HNLHNL · Round 22ŠRC Velika Gorica

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

HNK Gorica35%
×Draw26%
HNK Rijeka39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Gorica
1.25
HNK Rijeka
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 144 home / 144 away

creates per match

HNK Gorica
1.31
HNK Rijeka
1.40

allows per match

HNK Gorica
1.28
HNK Rijeka
1.19

finishing

HNK Gorica+0.00on par
HNK Rijeka+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Gorica ↓

HNK Rijeka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

HNK Gorica or draw
61%
HNK Gorica or HNK Rijeka
74%
Draw or HNK Rijeka
65%

Winning margin

HNK Gorica wins by 2+
15%
HNK Rijeka wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

HNK Gorica 1+ goals
71%
HNK Gorica 2+ goals
36%
HNK Gorica 3+ goals
13%
HNK Rijeka 1+ goals
74%
HNK Rijeka 2+ goals
39%
HNK Rijeka 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

HNK Gorica (draw refunded)
47%
HNK Rijeka (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Gorica at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.28 · 144 matches

HNK Rijeka away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.19 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Gorica attack 1.31 + HNK Rijeka defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

HNK Rijeka attack 1.40 + HNK Gorica defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

HNK Gorica scores more
35%
level
26%
HNK Rijeka scores more
39%

HNK Rijeka at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "HNK Rijeka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Gorica vs HNK Rijeka

HNK Rijeka beat HNK Gorica 2-0 in HNL on February 11, 2024.

The match was played at ŠRC Velika Gorica in Velika Gorica.