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HNK Cibalia vs NK Osijek II — First NL 2018

HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
NK Osijek II
NK Osijek II
10/19/2019First NLFirst NL · Round 10Stadion Cibalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

HNK Cibalia48%
×Draw26%
NK Osijek II26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HNK Cibalia
1.49
NK Osijek II
1.02

HNK Cibalia creates 46% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 55 away

creates per match

HNK Cibalia
1.56
NK Osijek II
1.02

allows per match

HNK Cibalia
1.03
NK Osijek II
1.42

finishing

HNK Cibalia+0.00on par
NK Osijek II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HNK Cibalia ↓

NK Osijek II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

HNK Cibalia or draw
74%
HNK Cibalia or NK Osijek II
74%
Draw or NK Osijek II
52%

Winning margin

HNK Cibalia wins by 2+
24%
NK Osijek II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

HNK Cibalia 1+ goals
77%
HNK Cibalia 2+ goals
44%
HNK Cibalia 3+ goals
19%
NK Osijek II 1+ goals
64%
NK Osijek II 2+ goals
27%
NK Osijek II 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

HNK Cibalia (draw refunded)
65%
NK Osijek II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HNK Cibalia at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.03 · 108 matches

NK Osijek II away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.42 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HNK Cibalia attack 1.56 + NK Osijek II defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.49

NK Osijek II attack 1.02 + HNK Cibalia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HNK Cibalia scores more
48%
level
26%
NK Osijek II scores more
26%

HNK Cibalia at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "HNK Cibalia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: HNK Cibalia vs NK Osijek II

NK Osijek II beat HNK Cibalia 2-0 in First NL on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Cibalia in Vinkovci.