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Hlinsko vs Ostrá — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Hlinsko
Hlinsko
PST
15:00
Ostrá
Ostrá
4/19/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 22Mestský stadion (Hlinsko)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hlinsko44%
×Draw24%
Ostrá33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hlinsko
1.70
Ostrá
1.44

Hlinsko creates 18% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hlinsko
1.90
Ostrá
1.50

allows per match

Hlinsko
1.38
Ostrá
1.50

finishing

Hlinsko+0.00on par
Ostrá+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hlinsko ↓

Ostrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hlinsko or draw
67%
Hlinsko or Ostrá
76%
Draw or Ostrá
56%

Winning margin

Hlinsko wins by 2+
23%
Ostrá wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hlinsko 1+ goals
82%
Hlinsko 2+ goals
51%
Hlinsko 3+ goals
24%
Ostrá 1+ goals
76%
Ostrá 2+ goals
42%
Ostrá 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Hlinsko (draw refunded)
57%
Ostrá (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hlinsko at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.38 · 73 matches

Ostrá away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hlinsko attack 1.90 + Ostrá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.70

Ostrá attack 1.50 + Hlinsko defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hlinsko scores more
44%
level
24%
Ostrá scores more
33%

Hlinsko at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hlinsko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hlinsko host Ostrá

April 19, 2020: Hlinsko take on Ostrá in 4. liga - Divizie C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hlinsko host Ostrá at Mestský stadion (Hlinsko).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.